Market Watch: The Week Ahead

Sunday, January 11, 2026

Hello investors!

Buckle up for one of the most data-dense weeks of the quarter. Big bank earnings kick off Tuesday with JPMorgan, the December CPI report hits the same morning (inflation check!), we get a torrent of retail updates from two major conferences, the Fed releases its Beige Book, and there's a Fedspeak flurry before the blackout period begins Friday. Oh, and healthcare gets its biggest conference of the year. If you were planning to ease into January, this week has other plans. Let's break down what matters.

This Week's Earnings Kickoff: Big Banks Set the Tone

The Q4 earnings season officially begins this week, and the banks go first:

Tuesday: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of New York Mellon, Delta Air Lines

Wednesday: Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, H.B. Fuller

Thursday: Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, JB Hunt Transport

Here's why bank earnings matter so much: They provide the first institutional read on the economy. Net interest margins tell us about the rate environment. Loan growth shows business confidence. Credit quality reveals consumer health. And investment banking revenue signals M&A and capital markets appetite.

If the big banks report strong quarters with healthy guidance, it validates the soft-landing thesis and could ignite the broader market rally. If they show cracks – rising loan loss provisions, weak consumer credit, sluggish deal flow – expect a January reality check.

Pro tip: Listen to Jamie Dimon's commentary on JPMorgan's Tuesday call. He doesn't sugarcoat, and his economic outlook often moves the entire financials sector.

Credit Card Charge-Offs: The Consumer Truth Serum

Thursday brings something equally important as earnings: December credit card net charge-offs and delinquency rates from American Express, Bank of America, Citigroup, Capital One, Discover, JPMorgan, and Synchrony Financial.

The document notes that "traders have their eyes on" these reports "for signs that consumers are buckling to financial pressure."

Here's why this matters: You can lie with surveys. You can spin retail sales data. But credit card charge-offs don't lie. If consumers are maxing out cards and defaulting, it shows up here. Rising delinquencies would be an early warning sign that the consumer is cracking under the weight of high rates and persistent inflation.

Watch these numbers closely. They often tell a different story than the official retail sales reports.

CPI Tuesday: Does Inflation Stay Stubborn?

Tuesday, 8:30 AM – The December CPI report drops, and economists expect core inflation to remain level at 2.7%.

But "remain level" is the problem. The Fed wants to see inflation continuing its descent toward 2%, not plateauing at 2.7%. If we get an upside surprise, rate cut hopes for early 2026 evaporate instantly. If inflation comes in softer than expected, it reinforces the dovish narrative.

This report lands the same morning as JPMorgan earnings, which means bond traders and equity traders will both be scrambling to reprice everything simultaneously. Volatility is guaranteed.

Also Tuesday, 9:00 AM: New Home Sales report – housing market health check with mortgage rates still elevated.

Retail Conferences: Holiday Sales Verdict

This week delivers two massive retail conferences where companies drop holiday sales updates and full-year guidance:

ICR Conference – Walmart, Urban Outfitters, Shake Shack, Movado, Yeti Holdings all presenting. This conference "typically includes a wave of holiday sales updates and full-year guidance announcements."

NRF Big Show (NYC) – BJ's Wholesale Club CEO Robert Eddy, Dick's Sporting Goods Executive Chairman Ed Stack, and Abercrombie & Fitch CEO Fran Horowitz speaking.

Here's what we're watching for: Did holiday sales meet expectations? Is inventory lean or bloated heading into 2026? And what's the guidance – are retailers optimistic or cautious?

Individual stock reactions can be violent if a company pre-announces weakness or strength at these events. If you're holding retail names, tune in.

Wednesday, 8:30 AM: The delayed November Retail Sales report finally drops, giving us hard data to compare against the anecdotal conference commentary.

JPMorgan Healthcare Conference: Biggest Event of the Year

All week – The JPMorgan Healthcare Conference takes over San Francisco, and it's considered "one of the most important of the year in the healthcare sector."

Johnson & Johnson, Novartis, AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb, and Kodiak Sciences are among the presenters. But here's the highlight: FDA Commissioner Marty Makary delivers a dedicated keynote on regulatory priorities, accelerated approvals, AI in drug development, and safety/efficacy standards.

Why does the FDA Commissioner's speech matter? Because his priorities directly impact which drugs get approved faster, which therapeutic areas get focus, and how AI can potentially revolutionize the approval process. If Makary signals a more innovation-friendly FDA, biotech stocks could rally across the board.

For healthcare investors, this conference is where deals get made, pipelines get validated, and stocks move on presentation quality. It's must-watch.

Fed's Last Chance: Blackout Period Begins Friday

Friday is "the last day before the FOMC blackout period ahead of the next meeting begins," and the Fed is loading up the speaking schedule:

• Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson
• Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman
• Fed Governor Michael Barr
• Fed Governor Stephen Miran

Plus earlier in the week:

• Monday, 10:35 AM: St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem
• Monday, 6:00 PM: NY Fed's John Williams (keynote)
• Wednesday, 9:50 AM: Philadelphia Fed's Anna Paulson
• Wednesday, 2:10 PM: NY Fed's John Williams again

This is the Fed's final opportunity to shape market expectations before they go silent ahead of the January meeting. Every word will be parsed for clues about the rate path. If they sound dovish, rate cut bets increase. If they sound hawkish, the market reprices.

Wednesday, 2:00 PM: Fed Beige Book release adds more color on regional economic conditions.

Costco Annual Meeting: Special Dividend Speculation

Thursday – Costco holds its annual meeting, and "there has been speculation that Costco may announce a special dividend this year."

Remember, Costco has a history of rewarding shareholders with special dividends when cash builds up. If they announce one at the annual meeting, the stock could pop. If they don't, and the market was pricing in the possibility, we could see disappointment selling.

Either way, Costco shareholders should tune in. Even without a special dividend, the commentary on membership trends, same-store sales, and expansion plans matters.

Detroit Auto Show: 2026 Vehicle Awards

Wednesday – The Detroit Auto Show announces winners of the 2026 North American Car, Truck and Utility Vehicle of the Year Awards, along with press conferences and model reveals.

Winning these awards can create genuine buzz and sales momentum. If an unexpected vehicle wins, watch the manufacturer's stock for a bump. If Tesla or a hot EV startup wins, it validates their market positioning.

Volatility Watch & Technical Extremes

High volatility expected:

• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) – space connectivity play with option interest
• Oklo (OKLO) – nuclear energy with elevated volatility

Overbought territory (pullback candidates):

• Amicus (FOLD) – second week overbought
• Shattuck Labs (STTK)
• Dynavax (DVAX) – second week overbought

Oversold territory (bounce candidates):

• CVR Energy (CVI)
• Lamb Weston (LW) – second week oversold
• AudioEye (AEYE)

M&A Votes & Name Changes

Monday: Avadel Pharmaceuticals shareholders vote on Alkermes buyout at $22.50. Stock trading 4% below deal price – small arb spread.

Tuesday: Denny's shareholders vote on going private with TriArtisan Capital (owner of TGI Fridays and P.F. Chang's). Restaurant consolidation continues.

Thursday: Topgolf Callaway officially reverts to "Callaway Golf" after selling controlling stake in Topgolf business. Back to its roots.

USDA Agricultural Report

Monday – The USDA issues its monthly World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE) covering wheat, rice, corn, soybeans, cotton, sugar, and livestock.

For agricultural commodities traders and ag-sector investors (Deere, Archer-Daniels-Midland, Bunge), this report can move futures markets and related equities significantly.

Your Day-by-Day Roadmap

Monday:

• All week: JPMorgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco (J&J, Novartis, AZN, BMY, FDA Commissioner keynote)
• All week: ICR Conference (Walmart, Urban Outfitters, Shake Shack, Movado, Yeti)
• All week: NRF Big Show NYC (BJ's, Dick's, Abercrombie execs speaking)
• All day: USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates
• Avadel shareholders vote on Alkermes buyout
• 10:35 AM: St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem speaks
• 6:00 PM: NY Fed's John Williams keynote
• Dividend ex-dates: AT&T, Verizon, Comcast, Abbott Labs
• Quiet periods expire: Medline, Andersen Group, Starfighters Space

Tuesday:

• After close: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of New York Mellon, Delta Air Lines
• All day: Needham Growth Conference begins (PagerDuty, Surf Air, Bitfarms, Navitas)
• All day: Affirm Holdings 5-year IPO anniversary
• Denny's shareholder vote on going private
• 8:30 AM: December CPI report – core inflation expected to hold at 2.7%
• 9:00 AM: New Home Sales report

Wednesday:

• After close: Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, H.B. Fuller
• All day: Detroit Auto Show (2026 North American Vehicle Awards announced)
• All day: OPEC monthly oil market report
• 8:30 AM: November Retail Sales report (delayed data finally arriving)
• 9:50 AM: Philadelphia Fed's Anna Paulson speaks
• 2:00 PM: Fed Beige Book release
• 2:10 PM: NY Fed's John Williams opening remarks

Thursday:

• After close: Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, JB Hunt Transport
• All day: Costco annual meeting (special dividend speculation)
• All day: Credit card charge-off and delinquency reports (AXP, BAC, C, COF, DFS, JPM, SYF)
• All day: Cocoa Association quarterly grindings report
• All day: Topgolf Callaway officially becomes Callaway Golf again

Friday:

• All day: Last day before FOMC blackout period begins
• Fed speakers: Philip Jefferson, Michelle Bowman, Michael Barr, Stephen Miran

The Bottom Line

This week is absolutely loaded with catalysts that'll shape the entire January trading narrative. Bank earnings and credit card metrics will tell us if the economy is as strong as headlines suggest. The CPI report will determine rate cut expectations. Retail conferences will deliver the holiday sales verdict. And the Fed's final pre-blackout commentary will set the tone heading into their January meeting.

My take? Be ready for volatility. Between Tuesday's CPI report hitting the same morning as JPMorgan earnings, Wednesday's retail sales data, and Thursday's credit card charge-off tsunami, there are multiple days this week where markets could swing violently in either direction.

If you're sitting on strong 2025 gains, there's no shame in taking some risk off before this data barrage. But if you're looking for opportunities, this week will create them – just make sure you're not catching falling knives.

What's your CPI prediction – does core inflation finally break below 2.7%, or does it stay stubborn (or worse, re-accelerate)? And are you expecting JPMorgan to sound optimistic or cautious about the economy? Hit reply with your thoughts, and I'll feature the best takes next week.

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P.S. – If you're holding any healthcare stocks, the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference could create significant volatility based on presentation quality and pipeline updates. And watch those credit card charge-off numbers Thursday – they often tell a more honest story about the consumer than any official government report.