Market Watch: The Week Ahead
Sunday, August 2, 2026
Hello investors!
One of the busiest earnings weeks of the season – Palantir Monday, AMD and SpaceX's first-ever earnings call Tuesday, Disney and Shopify Wednesday, Airbnb and Datadog Thursday. Plus Friday's jobs report (83K-88K expected). Semiconductors got crushed 21% in July despite being up 60% YTD. This week tests if that selloff was overdone. Here's what matters:
AMD Tuesday: Nvidia's Challenger Proves Its Case
Tuesday after close – AMD reports Q2. Consensus: $11.31B revenue, $1.61 EPS. Options pricing 12% move.
Last quarter was strong (revenue +38% Y/Y), and Microsoft's blowout Azure results already sent AMD up 13% ahead of earnings. But the real test is Q3 guidance.
Watch for:
- MI400 Series GPU traction (unveiled at Advancing AI event in July)
- Data center revenue momentum
- Hyperscaler customer concentration (is this just Microsoft?)
- Gross margin trajectory (guided ~56%)
AMD has beaten revenue estimates 8 straight quarters. The bar is high.
SpaceX Tuesday: First-Ever Earnings Call
Tuesday 4:30 PM – SpaceX holds its first earnings call as a public company. Elon Musk expected to participate.
The three things every investor wants to know:
- Starlink subscriber growth and ARPU – Is the satellite internet business scaling profitably?
- Starship timeline – Commercial launches, cost per kg to orbit
- Capital spending expectations – How much cash does this company need?
This is the most anticipated debut earnings call since... maybe ever. No historical baseline, no comparable comps. Pure price discovery.
Palantir Monday: AI Government Dominance Continuing?
Monday after close – Palantir reports Q2. Consensus: $1.81B revenue, $0.35 EPS.
Last quarter was explosive: revenue +85% Y/Y, U.S. commercial revenue +104%. Q2 guidance was $1.797B-$1.801B – they essentially told us the number. The question is Q3 guidance and whether the Maven Smart System military AI program is accelerating.
Recent wins: NVIDIA partnership for sovereign AI deployments + U.S. Army selected Palantir Foundry for Next-Generation Command and Control.
Palantir has beaten estimates 8 straight quarters. Execution isn't the concern – valuation at these levels is.
Disney Wednesday: First Quarter Under New CEO
Wednesday before open – Disney reports Q3 fiscal 2026. Consensus: $25.41B revenue, $1.85 EPS.
Josh D'Amaro's first full quarter as CEO after Bob Iger's departure. What strategic direction is he signaling?
Watch for:
- Streaming profitability trajectory
- Parks attendance (consumer discretionary health indicator)
- Sports segment (projected mid-teens operating income decline)
- Capital allocation priorities under new leadership
Disney has beaten EPS 8 straight quarters. The new CEO wildcard is the real story.
Shopify Wednesday: After the 12% Post-Q1 Selloff
Wednesday before open – Shopify reports Q2. Consensus: $3.46B revenue, $0.41 EPS.
Last quarter's conservative free cash flow guidance sent shares down 12%. Since then: Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, and Stifel all upgraded or raised targets. Is the selloff overdone?
GMV crossed $100B in a single quarter for the first time in Q1. Q2 revenue guided to high-20% growth. Free cash flow margins expected mid-teens.
Watch for any guidance raise – that's what crushed the stock last time.
Eli Lilly Wednesday: Obesity Drug Empire
Wednesday – Eli Lilly reports Q2. Tirzepatide (Mounjaro/Zepbound) demand is the only metric that matters.
GLP-1 supply constraints have been the key overhang. Are they resolved? Can manufacturing keep up with demand? Any pipeline updates on next-generation obesity treatments.
Novo Nordisk also reports Wednesday – Ozempic's maker. Back-to-back GLP-1 giants in one day.
Friday Jobs Report: Recovery Holding?
Friday 8:30 AM – July nonfarm payrolls expected: 83K-88K adds, unemployment steady at 4.2%
June came in at just 57K – still weak. If July rebounds to 83K+, the labor market is stabilizing. If it falls below 57K, recession fears intensify.
Warsh called the labor market "solid and steady" last week. Let's see if the data agrees.
Also Friday: Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey Monday – are banks tightening credit? Tighter standards = recession warning.
Take-Two Thursday: GTA VI Pre-Launch
Thursday 8:00 AM – Take-Two earnings call with expected GTA VI commentary.
Grand Theft Auto VI is launching in November. This call will give investors the clearest picture yet of pre-order demand, marketing spend, and revenue recognition expectations. TTWO has been building toward this moment for years.
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Bottom Line
This week is wall-to-wall catalysts. SpaceX's first earnings call Tuesday is genuinely historic – no roadmap, no comparables, just raw price discovery on one of the world's most valuable companies.
AMD Tuesday tests if the AI chip narrative extends beyond Nvidia. Palantir Monday tests if government AI spending is accelerating. Disney Wednesday shows what the new CEO is prioritizing. Shopify tests if the Q1 selloff was overdone.
Friday's jobs report caps the week. If it comes in weak alongside earnings disappointments, August could get ugly fast.
Don't be overexposed into Tuesday afternoon – SpaceX and AMD both reporting simultaneously creates unpredictable volatility.
What's your SpaceX prediction – does Starlink growth justify the $1.8T valuation? And does AMD's MI400 give Nvidia real competition? Hit reply with your thoughts.
Until then, stay sharp and happy investing!
FindBetterTrades
P.S. – Semiconductors fell 21% in July despite being up 60% YTD. If AMD delivers strong Q3 guidance Tuesday, it could trigger a sharp relief rally across the entire chip sector. But if guidance disappoints after that rally, the correction resumes.