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Mid-week Update: Fed Decision Looms, Nvidia Slips, StubHub Hits the Market

Hey market watchers!

It’s Wednesday, and all eyes are on the Fed. Stocks are treading water, bonds are steady, and traders are bracing for Jerome Powell’s big moment this afternoon. Add in some hot IPO action, China headlines, and activist fireworks at Workday — it’s shaping up to be a loaded mid-week.

The Fed’s Big Pivot

  • The setup: The FOMC is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points at 2 pm ET — the first cut in nearly a year.
  • The stakes: Powell’s presser at 2:30 pm ET could be the real market mover, especially with political pressure from Trump and new Fed governor Stephen Miran’s debut vote.
  • The outlook: Economists like Chris Brigati at SWBC expect this cut to kick off a full easing cycle, with 100–150 basis points of cuts possible over six months if labor market weakness persists.

Bond Market Yawns

  • The calm: The 10-year yield is holding near 4.03%, while the 2-year is steady at 3.53%.
  • The risk: A surprise 50bp cut would rattle both the dollar (already hovering near 2-month lows) and yields.

Stock Movers: Winners & Losers

  • Workday (WDAY) +6% — Jumped after Elliott Investment Management revealed a $2B stake and praised management. The activist glow-up is real.
  • New Fortress Energy (NFE) +35% — Landed a $4B LNG supply deal with Puerto Rico, lifting shares out of debt-pressure doldrums.
  • Baidu (BIDU) +9% — Surged on its new AI model, Ernie X1.1, showing serious progress in reasoning and instruction-following.
  • Nvidia (NVDA) -2.7% — Slipped after China banned top tech firms from buying its AI chips. A rare bruise for the AI darling.
  • Tesla (TSLA) -1.7% — Under pressure after regulators launched an investigation into Model Y door handles.

IPO Watch: StubHub’s Big Day

  • The deal: StubHub priced its IPO at $23.50/share, raising $800M and valuing the ticket resale giant at $8.6B.
  • The challenge: Growth slowed to just 3% in H1 2025, and the company lost $76M over that period.
  • The kicker: CEO Eric Baker holds nearly 88% of voting shares — investors will need to be comfortable with his tight grip on control.

Global Backdrop

  • China Tech Rally: The Hang Seng Tech Index surged 4.3% to its highest since 2021, powered by AI bets and big fundraising moves.
  • Trump & Modi: The U.S. president says he had a “wonderful” call with India’s PM, signaling progress on tariffs and Russian oil disputes.
  • Geopolitics: Israel expanded its ground assault in Gaza, while tensions remain high across Europe and the Middle East.

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The Bottom Line

Markets are holding steady as the Fed prepares to flip the script on policy. Nvidia’s China setback, StubHub’s IPO, and activist heat at Workday are spicing up stock action, but the real fireworks come at 2 pm.

Today’s playbook:

  • Watch Powell’s tone — dovish hints could spark another risk rally.
  • Keep an eye on StubHub — hot IPOs often fade after the debut shine.
  • Remember: when the Fed pivots, volatility often follows.

This is one of those rare Wednesdays where all the pressure builds before the main event.

Stay optimistic, stay realistic,

FindBetterTrades

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