The "Recovery Swing" Strategy – Trading CZR's Comeback Story
Hey there, comeback trader –
Notice how Caesars (CZR) keeps making higher lows while fighting to break through key resistance levels? That’s the sound of a heavyweight getting off the mat. Let’s talk about the "Recovery Swing" Strategy – how to trade a beaten-down giant that’s showing real signs of life.
Why CZR is a Recovery Trader's Playground
CZR presents a classic setup:
Deep Cyclical Value – Las Vegas recovery + digital sports betting growth
Massive Drawdown History – From $120+ to $35, now rebuilding
Clean Technical Repair – Higher lows since June, testing key $44 level
Strong Insider Buying – Management betting on themselves
This isn't gambling – it's trading the rehabilitation of a brand.
The 3-Phase Recovery System
Phase 1: The Accumulation Zone ($35-40)
Smart money building positions
Declining selling volume
First higher low established
Phase 2: The Breakout Test ($40-45) – WHERE WE ARE NOW
Testing 200-day MA resistance
Building energy for next move
Your decision point: fakeout or real breakout?
Phase 3: The Momentum Run ($45-55)
Institutional FOMO kicks in
Shorts start covering
Retail finally notices
Assumption Example: CZR's Current Setup
The Critical Level: $44.20 – The 200-day moving average
Two Scenarios from Here:
Scenario A: The Successful Breakout
CZR closes above $44.20 for 2+ days
Volume confirms (2x average)
Entry: $44.50-45.00
Target 1: $48.50 (previous high)
Target 2: $55.00 (measured move)
Stop: $41.80 (below recent swing low)
Scenario B: The Failed Test
CZR gets rejected at $44
Falls back to $40 support
Entry: $40.50-41.00 for next bounce
Same targets, just lower entry
The Casino Stock Correlations
CZR doesn't move alone – watch these peers:
BULLISH CONFIRMATION NEEDED:
MGM breaking above $45
PENN holding $70 support
DKNG maintaining uptrend
Pro Tip: The VIX matters here – when fear drops, leisure stocks like CZR rise.
The Advanced Play: Recovery Options Combo
For those wanting leveraged exposure:
Buy January $45 calls – Breakout speculation
Sell weekly $44 calls against them – Income while you wait
Net cost: $1.00-1.50 per spread
Potential: 200-300% return on successful breakout
3 CZR-Specific Catalysts to Watch
Las Vegas Convention Numbers – Corporate travel returning?
Sports Betting Market Share – Gaining on DraftKings?
Debt Reduction Progress – Balance sheet repair updates
The Recovery Reality Check
✅ What Could Go Right: Vegas boom, sports betting dominance, debt paid down
⚠️ What Could Go Wrong: Recession fears, consumer spending pullback, interest rates
🛑 Your Stop-Loss Discipline: 8-10% max pain tolerance on any position
Your Weekend CZR Decision Matrix
If CZR closes Friday above $44: Plan breakout entry Monday AM
If CZR closes Friday $42-44: Set alert for break above $44.20
If CZR closes Friday below $42: Wait for $40 retest
Remember: Recovery trades require patience and scaling – start small, add on confirmation.
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Bet on the bounce,
FindBetterTrades
The Recovery Trade Specialist