THE WEEK AHEAD: October 13-17, 2025

Good morning, investors!

Stocks were riding high last week until Friday's 11 a.m. bombshell—President Trump threatened a "massive increase" to Chinese tariffs, sending all three major indexes sharply lower to close down over 2% for the week. As the government shutdown enters its second week, earnings season shifts into high gear, giving investors plenty to digest while official economic data remains delayed. Here's what you need to know:

BANKING BONANZA BEGINS

Financial services firms dominate this week's earnings calendar as Q3 reporting season officially kicks off:

Tuesday: JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), BlackRock (BLK)

Wednesday: Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), PNC Financial (PNC), Citizens Financial

Thursday: Charles Schwab (SCHW), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Interactive Brokers, KeyCorp, M&T Bank

Friday: American Express (AXP), State Street, Fifth Third, Huntington Bancshares, Regions Financial

The big banks will provide crucial insights into lending trends, investment banking activity, trading revenue, and credit quality. With the Fed having cut rates and economic uncertainty lingering, management commentary about loan demand and credit conditions will be closely scrutinized.

TAIWAN SEMI AND ASML: AI CHIP ECOSYSTEM

Two critical foreign tech companies at the heart of AI infrastructure report this week:

Wednesday: ASML Holding—the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker essential for advanced chip manufacturing

Thursday: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC)—the world's largest contract chipmaker and key Apple and Nvidia supplier

These reports will provide crucial insights into AI chip demand, sustainability, and capital expenditure trends from hyperscalers. Any weakness in orders or guidance could ripple through the entire semiconductor sector.

SHUTDOWN DELAYS KEY DATA

The government shutdown continues disrupting economic data releases. The Consumer Price Index, originally scheduled for October 15, has been pushed back to October 24 as the BLS recalls employees to collect data. The Social Security Administration needs inflation data to set its annual cost-of-living adjustment, adding urgency to the situation.

Other data that may be affected includes retail sales and housing starts, though both are currently still scheduled for release on Thursday and Friday, respectively.

TRUMP'S CHINA WHIPLASH

Market volatility intensified after Trump's weekend comments swung from conciliatory to threatening. Saturday brought a softer tone with Trump saying he wanted to "help China, not hurt it," sending chip stocks higher in premarket Monday (Nvidia +3.6%, AMD +4.2%, Intel +2.6%).

But Friday's threat of 100% additional tariffs and new export controls on critical software products erased those gains. ING economist Lynn Song notes China's exports rose at their fastest pace in six months despite tariffs, with the U.S. becoming less important for Chinese exports in fast-growing sectors like lithium batteries, EVs, and chips.

OTHER NOTABLE EARNINGS

Tuesday: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Domino's Pizza (DPZ)

Wednesday: Abbott Laboratories (ABT), United Airlines (UAL), J.B. Hunt Transport (JBHT)

Thursday: CSX (CSX), Travelers (TRV), Snap-On

Johnson & Johnson will provide pharma and consumer health insights, while United Airlines and J.B. Hunt offer perspectives on travel demand and logistics trends.

ECONOMIC DATA (IF RELEASED)

Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for September (forecast: 100.5, flat from August)

Wednesday: Fed Beige Book (seventh of eight times this year), CPI for September (expected: core +3.1% unchanged) — now delayed to October 24

Thursday: Retail Sales for September (forecast: +0.4% month-over-month), PPI for September (expected: +2.6% year-over-year matching August), NAHB Housing Market Index (forecast: 33, up from 32)

Friday: Housing Starts for September (expected: 1.32 million annualized rate)

The retail sales and housing data releases depend on whether the shutdown ends or if the agencies can recall sufficient staff.

TECH EVENTS AND CONFERENCES

Monday: Nvidia OCP Global Summit showcasing latest AI infrastructure innovations, Oracle AI World conference (formerly OpenWorld) with Larry Ellison keynoting, Cloudflare Connect conference begins (four days)

Tuesday: Microsoft ends Windows 10 support—potentially leaving hundreds of millions of PCs unprotected and driving replacement cycle demand for Dell, HP, Lenovo, and Best Buy. Salesforce Dreamforce 2025 begins in San Francisco (three days) with Marc Benioff, Sundar Pichai, and Brian Niccol speaking.

Wednesday: Dollar Tree, HPE, and Salesforce hold Investor Days. NACS Show Expo begins (convenience and fuel retail industry).

Thursday: Veeva Systems and Jefferies Financial host Investor Days.

Friday: TwitchCon begins (three days)—relevant for Amazon (owns Twitch), digital media, gaming, and creator economy investors. Also marks the last trading day before Fed blackout period ahead of next FOMC meeting.

FEDSPEAK

Monday 12:10 p.m.: Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson at National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting

Tuesday: Fed Chair Powell speaks in Philadelphia on "Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy" at NABE Annual Meeting. 3:30 p.m.: Boston Fed President Susan Collins at Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce

Wednesday 1:00 p.m.: Fed Governor Christopher Waller discusses AI at DC Fintech Week conference

WHAT I'M WATCHING

The banking earnings will set the tone for Q3 reporting season. JPMorgan's Tuesday morning report typically provides the first comprehensive read on financial sector health, with CEO Jamie Dimon's commentary about the economy always market-moving.

Taiwan Semi's Thursday report takes on extra importance given the China tariff tensions. As Apple and Nvidia's primary manufacturing partner, TSMC's order book and capacity utilization provide early signals about smartphone and AI chip demand trends.

Trump's volatile China messaging creates enormous uncertainty. Friday's reversal from gains to sharp losses shows how quickly sentiment can shift on tariff headlines. ING's observation that China's exports are less reliant on the U.S. market suggests prolonged trade tensions may have diminishing marginal impact.

The CPI delay to October 24 removes a key data point that would have informed Fed policy discussions. With the next FOMC meeting approaching and the blackout period beginning Friday, policymakers have less current inflation data to work with.

Microsoft's Windows 10 end-of-life could accelerate the PC replacement cycle. With hundreds of millions of machines potentially losing security support, corporate IT departments may need to upgrade faster than planned—benefiting hardware manufacturers.

I'm watching for any signs that the government shutdown might end. The longer it persists, the more economic visibility we lose, creating additional market uncertainty just as earnings season demands a clear context for results interpretation.

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P.S. With banks reporting strong results but Trump threatening massive new China tariffs, which do you think will matter more for markets—corporate fundamentals or geopolitical headlines? Hit reply with your thoughts on what drives sentiment in this environment!